New polls show a trend nationally towards McCain (see RCP averages here). While the race narrows overall, the true battle will be won and lost in the electoral college. Here we continue to see an Obama advantage with 238 electoral college votes vs McCain's 174 - with 126 currently categorized as toss-up. The reality for John McCain is that he must hold his solid lead in the 'red' states while making headway in both the toss-up states and in a couple key states which currently lean towards Obama. This election will come down to Ohio and Michigan, and Florida. If McCain can win those key states in addition to adding North Carolina, Virginia, and just one of the western states (Nevada, Colorado, or New Mexico), he will likely win the election. The above scenario would push McCain just above the 270 electoral college votes needed to win. If McCain cannot put this coalition together, he will not win regardless of how much he surges overall.

It is conceivable that McCain could win without one of the above key states, but only if he can sway another key state (i.e. Pennsylvania) over from the Obama side. So, while the McCain team is clearly enjoying a post convention, post Palin bounce, a November victory remains an uphill battle. Unless the Obama decline turns into an outright meltdown - which it very well could, given their obvious inability to find the right note to counter the Palin excitement - McCain will be wise to stay on the offensive.

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